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Sun 17 Sep 2023 11:17:40 AM CDT

Predicting is hard

Especially the future, as someone or other observed.  I doubt Yogi Berra invented it.  But sometimes you can make pretty good guesses based on the recent present.  No one will be less surprised than I when Ken Paxton is indicted by a federal grand jury.  There's no investigation - announced anyway - but the Bushies' attempt to take him out failed embarrassingly so now the feds will take over.  The question is whether he will meekly surrender as all the others - minus a handful of Jan 6 fugitives - or refuse.  If there is to be a confrontation Texas is about the best place for it.  If he refuses to surrender and the governor orders an appropriate amount of force to prevent his arrest it would be interesting.  A Fort Sumter moment?

It has to happen eventually of the much worse alternative will happen only slightly more eventually.  The feds can't arrest a Texan that Texas doesn't want arrested.  Military force?  Beats me, this regime is so completely off the rails it just might do it. 

The more eventual eventuality is that things continue to deteriorate and if no single state forces the regime to back down it is left to the partisans.  The US Army stands at just over a million - Guard and reserves included - and only about a quarter at best is combat personnel. And with the deterioration of what is available (mentally and physically unfit) leaves a few hundred thousand against millions (two or three million is a ridiculously low estimate, ten is probably low) dispersed over more than three million square miles will be impossible to deal with.  Controlling the urban areas will require more manpower than is available, and if infrastructure breakdown - a near certainty - leaves those areas without food and fuel there is nothing left with which to pursue the rural dissidents. 

I wish it weren't so.  Innocent people suffer even in a just war, but innocent people are suffering now and there is no one to help. 

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